AGP Executive Report

FATF Watch: Botswana faces a fresh FATF Grey-List threat as ESAAMLG prepares a tougher mutual evaluation focused on whether anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing controls work in practice, not just on paper. Inflation Relief: Statistics Botswana says inflation eased to 9.4% in July, mainly as government-cut diesel and petrol prices lowered transport costs. Debt Debate: Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe told Parliament Botswana is not in debt distress, even as domestic borrowing reportedly rose sharply to P56.06bn in 2025/26 and external debt climbed to P27.88bn. Economic Diversification Push: The AfDB urges Botswana to broaden growth beyond diamonds, improve productivity, and unlock new development finance sources. Legal/Justice: In the Butale case, the Attorney General has taken a first procedural step by filing for directions at the High Court over the removal of sodomy-law provisions. Regional Business Agenda: At the 46th SADC summit in Durban, leaders backed industrialisation through mineral and agricultural value chains, economic corridors, and a new SADC Tourism UNIVISA, with Ramaphosa taking the chair. Entrepreneurship: Registrations are open for GEC+Africa 2026 in Cape Town (16–17 Sept), with Botswana among countries that have hosted road-to-events. Energy Finance: Botswana is listed among 13 primary markets for Morocco-linked access to a proposed $200m African energy transition fund managed by AIIM.

SADC Summit Outcomes: Leaders meeting in Durban backed a regional tourism UNIVISA and put critical minerals, infrastructure and agricultural transformation at the centre of a new industrialisation push, with South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa taking the SADC chairmanship. Botswana Finance & Governance: Botswana’s domestic debt reportedly doubled to P56.06bn while external debt rose to P27.88bn, and a Financial Intelligence Agency report says corruption dominates criminal proceeds linked to CEDA and BDC. Electricity Procurement Scrutiny: Botswana Power Corporation’s smart meter tender is under fire after pricing disparities emerged, raising questions on value for money and consumer protection. Mining & Investment Signals: Arc Minerals selected a drilling contractor for its Botswana copper-belt exploration programme, while Sandfire Resources’ Botswana-linked copper operations drew renewed market attention. Agriculture for Resilience: A Botswana-focused piece highlights safflower’s drought tolerance and value-chain potential for small-scale farmers. Regional Politics Spillover: Zambia confirmed the arrest of Botswana’s ex-bishop Trevor Mwamba in a poll-crisis raid tied to alleged illegal military training. Payments & Diaspora Banking: Absa Bank Botswana is pushing contactless Absa Pay adoption, and Absa launched a proposition aimed at turning the Botswana diaspora into investors, not just remittance senders.

Public Finance: Botswana’s domestic debt has ballooned from P27.2bn to P56.06bn, with external debt rising to P27.88bn, as Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe warns borrowing will remain necessary while the economy stays subdued. Governance & Development Finance: A Financial Intelligence Agency report says corruption is the biggest driver of criminal proceeds linked to CEDA and BDC, accounting for about P174.68m (roughly 87%) since 2021. Electricity Procurement: Botswana Power Corporation is defending its smart meter tender after a local bidder quoted about four times higher than the lowest evaluated international bid, raising fresh questions on value for money and consumer protection. Regional Politics & Migration: As South Africa takes over SADC chairmanship in Durban, the “March and March” movement plans anti-migrant marches and pickets at the summit, pushing for stricter visa controls and tougher action against employers of undocumented workers. Business & Investment: Absa Bank Botswana is rolling out Absa Pay contactless payments and a diaspora banking proposition aimed at turning remittances into investment. Energy & Resources: Arc Minerals has selected a drilling contractor for its Botswana diamond-copper exploration programme, while ReconAfrica reports gas and potential liquids flowed to surface at Kavango West 1X and plans open-hole horizontal testing.

SADC Leadership: Botswana’s region-wide agenda gets a boost as SADC’s Ordinary Organ Troika Heads of State and Government meet in Durban ahead of the 46th summit, with South Africa set to take over the chairmanship and push migration, trade, critical minerals, industrialisation and security. FMD Court Battle: Botswana’s cattle sector remains in focus after the High Court dismissed the Law Society of Botswana’s bid to block a South African FMD expert advocate’s ad hoc admission, while feedlot operators adjust their case—dropping action against BMC and targeting the Director of Veterinary Services, the Lands and Agriculture Minister and the Attorney General. Trade & Macroeconomy: Eswatini’s merchandise trade deficit widened to E1.05bn in the first four months of 2026/27, with imports rising faster than exports—an early warning for SACU-linked demand and pricing pressures. Diamonds & Markets: Lucara confirmed the sale of Botswana’s giant 2,488-carat Motswedi diamond (Karowe), while the Botswana Stock Exchange doubles down on its 10X by 2030 push to grow capital markets and attract investment beyond diamonds. Public Finance & Services: Botswana’s VAT reform drive continues as BURS taps African tax expertise to extend VAT on remote services, and Water Utilities Corporation reports a P554.6m loss and cash squeeze, underscoring pressure on water service funding and collections. Conservation & Business Links: Okavango Diamond Company is set to access a wider buyer base via Dubai’s DMCC diamond tender platform, aiming to improve export reach and value.

Botswana Diamond Trade: Lucara confirmed it has sold the giant 2,488-carat Motswedi diamond from Karowe, recovered in August 2024, in a major deal that kept the buyer and price confidential. Capital Markets Push: The Botswana Stock Exchange says its “10X by 2030” plan must attract more investment and broader ownership as the country faces pressure to diversify beyond diamonds. Tax & Digital Economy: BURS is extending VAT to remote services, targeting over P400m in extra revenue by using regional tax expertise to modernise the VAT framework. Water Utility Strain: Water Utilities Corporation reported a P554.6m loss for FY ended March 31, 2024, with falling cash and rising liabilities, while trying to improve collections and water security. Resource Wealth Debate: Bank of Botswana and Bank of Namibia discussed how to turn resource wealth into long-term prosperity, stressing diversification, institutions and saving. Labour Reform: Botswana’s new Employment and Labour Relations Act takes effect 1 September, with business groups warning it could be “catastrophic” if implementation isn’t ready. Mining Exploration: Power Metal says its first Molopo Farms drill hole intersected suspected nickel mineralisation, with assays pending.

Critical Minerals & Security: A new report warns that the Sahel’s lithium boom is increasingly entangled with conflict, insurgency and cross-border smuggling—raising the stakes for supply chains and regional stability. Regional Politics & Elections: AU-COMESA observers urge Zambia’s stakeholders to cool tensions after intimidation claims and a six-hour vote-count pause threatened confidence in the process. SADC Chair Agenda: South Africa takes over the SADC chairmanship in Durban, with migration, trade, critical minerals, industrialisation and security set to dominate talks. Botswana Capital Markets: The Botswana Stock Exchange pushes its 10X by 2030 plan to grow listings and investment beyond diamonds, citing an investment gap and the need for credible opportunities. VAT Expansion: BURS targets an extra P400m in VAT from remote services, using ATAF support to modernise the tax system for the digital economy. Water Utility Strain: WUC reports a P554.6m loss and shrinking cash, blaming higher costs and legal provisions while working to improve collections. Diamond Trade Access: Okavango Diamond Company eyes a wider buyer network via a Dubai DMCC tender-platform partnership. Karowe Update: Lucara says Karowe’s “undeniable” diamond quality remains central as open-pit work nears completion and the underground project advances. Power & Labour: TUCOSWA and NUM warn Eskom restructuring could raise costs and destabilise electricity-dependent economies. Cannabis Policy: Botswana signals plans to legalise medical cannabis and exports, aiming to create jobs and reduce reliance on diamonds. Migration Pressure: Government links rising outward migration—especially to Europe—to unemployment, weaker growth and fiscal pressure.

Zambia Election Tensions: International observers say Zambia’s vote was marred by intimidation claims, abductions and a six-hour counting pause after reports of violence and missing ballots, with police arresting suspects over a polling agent killing. Botswana Capital Markets Push: The Botswana Stock Exchange says its 10X by 2030 plan aims to deepen markets and attract investment beyond diamonds, citing weak turnover and the need for credible local opportunities. Water Utility Strain: Water Utilities Corporation reports a P554.6m loss for FY ended March 31, 2024, with falling cash and rising liabilities, while working on collections and cost control. VAT on Remote Services: BURS targets over P400m more VAT from the remote-services economy, using African Tax Administration Forum support to implement the reform. Diamond Trade Access: Okavango Diamond Company is set to join Dubai’s DMCC diamond tender platform, widening buyer reach as Botswana seeks better value from exports. Karowe Mine Equipment Deal: Sandvik booked a 15-unit underground drill/loader fleet order for Lucara’s Karowe project, including financing support and monitoring services. Migration Pressure: Government links rising outward migration—especially to Europe—to unemployment, low growth and fiscal stress, warning of trafficking and exploitation risks. Cannabis Policy Signal: President Duma Boko says Botswana is ready to legalise medical cannabis and exports, aiming to create jobs and reduce diamond reliance. Housing Tech Partnership: Botswana Housing Corporation and BTC sign an MoU to bring fibre and smart-home features into BHC estates.

Botswana Economy & Policy: Botswana’s Employment and Labour Relations Act (2025) kicks in on 1 September, but critics say the country is not ready as unemployment remains high and preparations lag. Digital & Connectivity: BoFiNet has finished a BWP 43 million local fibre access project, connecting 191 customers across Moshupa, Ramotswa/Taung and Thamaga, with 210 local jobs created during construction. Housing Tech: Botswana Housing Corporation (BHC) and BTC signed an MoU to bring fibre, smart home features and smarter estate management into BHC developments. Mining & Business: Sandvik secured a 15-unit underground equipment and services order for Lucara’s Karowe mine, with deliveries running through Q4 2026, plus financing support. Diversification Push: Botswana plans to legalize cannabis for medical use and exports, citing successful agricultural trials and a bid to cut reliance on diamonds. Trade & Regional Links: Botswana and Namibia completed the feasibility study for the Trans-Kalahari Railway, paving the way for financing and procurement decisions. Migration Pressure: Government reports rising outward migration, especially to Europe, driven by unemployment and economic strain. Culture & Creative Economy: Animator Theo Silitshena is fundraising P70,000 to attend an international animation residency in Türkiye, aiming to turn one opportunity into training for Botswana’s next storytellers.

Fibre & Connectivity: BoFiNet has finished its BWP 43 million local access fibre rollout, linking Moshupa, Ramotswa/Taung and Thamaga and connecting 191 customers, with 210 local jobs created. Smart Housing: Botswana Housing Corporation and BTC signed an MoU to bring high-speed fibre, smart home features and improved estate management to BHC developments. Mining & Equipment Deals: Sandvik booked an order to supply Lucara’s Karowe mine with a 15-unit underground fleet plus parts, rock tools and digital monitoring, supported by financing backed by Sweden’s export credit agency. Diamonds & Market Watch: Lucara says Botswana’s 2,488-carat Motswedi diamond has finally found a buyer after two years, ending a long search for a stone of exceptional scale. Migration & Jobs Pressure: Government links rising outward migration—especially to Europe—to unemployment, weaker growth, fiscal strain and declining mineral revenues, warning of trafficking and exploitation risks. Trade & Regional Integration: Botswana and Namibia completed the feasibility study for the Trans-Kalahari Railway, while India and SACU signed ToR to start talks on a preferential trade agreement. Entrepreneurship Push: A circular economy challenge is offering entrepreneurs up to R250,000 plus mentorship and product testing exposure at the V&A Waterfront. Culture & Creative Economy: Kelebogile Marope won the 2026 FNB Art Prize, the first Botswana artist to take the top award.

Trans-Kalahari Railway: Botswana and Namibia have completed the feasibility study for the proposed 1,850km rail link to Walvis Bay, with next steps now focused on financing, procurement and implementation models. Trade & tariffs: India and SACU signed terms of reference to start negotiations for a Preferential Trade Agreement, with talks expected to begin within a month and a one-year target for completion. Mining equipment & investment: Sandvik has secured a Botswana order to supply underground drills, loaders and support services for Lucara’s Karowe mine, with deliveries running through Q4 2026. Mining progress: Bezant Resources reports the successful first blast at its Hope & Gorob copper-gold project in Namibia, moving the project toward ore selection and plant preparations. Digital safety: Botswana communities are being urged to take practical steps against mobile money scams and identity theft through village digital safety workshops. Governance & accountability: Botswana’s forensic audit report on alleged corruption has not yet reached key law-enforcement agencies, raising questions about follow-through. Public health: Botswana disclosed nearly 41,000 deaths over five years in parliament, spotlighting pressure on the healthcare system. Gambling regulation: Parliament debates proposals to lower the gambling age from 21 to 18 as the Gambling Authority warns illegal betting drains about P850m annually.

Trade Policy: India and SACU (South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and Eswatini) signed Terms of Reference to kick off negotiations for a Preferential Trade Agreement, with talks expected to start within a month and aim to finish within a year, focusing on trade in goods, rules of origin, customs procedures, dispute settlement and SPS measures—India is pushing for lower tariffs on items including automobiles, pharmaceuticals and industrial machinery. Gambling Regulation: Botswana’s Parliament debate on lowering the legal gambling age from 21 to 18 faces pushback from opposition MPs as the Gambling Authority warns illegal betting drains about P850 million annually and exposes youth to unregulated platforms. Health & Labour: Nurses and midwives petition Cabinet to reject proposed Nursing and Midwifery Council of Botswana fee hikes (from P50 to P850), warning it could drive professionals out of practice. Public Safety Online: Village Digital Safety Botswana workshops highlight growing mobile money scams, identity theft and impersonation calls, urging practical steps to protect rural communities. Governance & Accountability: A forensic corruption audit received by President Duma Boko months ago has not reached Botswana’s key law-enforcement agencies, raising questions about follow-through. Business & Industry: Debswana and CEDA partner to unlock citizen-led industrial opportunities beyond mining, aiming to strengthen local supply chains. Sports & Sponsorship: Township Rollers secure a P2m Bet267 deal (P1m per season for two years), while Botswana’s Kelebogile Marope becomes the first local winner of the 2026 FNB Art Prize.

India–SACU Trade Talks: India and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU)—including Botswana—have signed Terms of Reference to restart negotiations for a Preferential Trade Agreement, aiming to conclude talks within a year and cut tariffs on selected goods like cars, pharmaceuticals and industrial machinery. SME Market Access: The AfCFTA Secretariat says SME training alone won’t grow trade; businesses need buyers, finance, logistics and deal-making support, with a Gaborone programme focused on getting firms export-ready. Public Finance Pressure: Botswana’s government is seeking another P3.7 billion (US$270m) from local banks to plug the 2026/27 budget deficit, raising questions about rising borrowing and debt servicing. Labour Relations: BOFEPUSU rejects plans for centralised public-service bargaining, warning it could weaken unions and disrupt existing recognition agreements. Healthcare Costs: Nurses and midwives have petitioned Cabinet to reject proposed Nursing and Midwifery Council of Botswana fee hikes, arguing they’ll push professionals out of registration. Gambling Age Debate: Opposition MPs resist lowering the legal gambling age from 21 to 18 as the Gambling Authority warns illegal betting drains about P850m annually and targets young people. Aviation Disruptions: Air Botswana says 11 pilots resigned in early 2026, worsening fleet constraints and forcing reduced schedules. Business & Markets: Cobre Limited’s inclusion into the MSCI Micro Cap Index takes effect 1 September, boosting investor visibility for the Botswana-linked copper firm.

India–SACU Trade Talks: India and the Southern African Customs Union signed Terms of Reference to kick off negotiations for a Preferential Trade Agreement, aiming to cut tariffs on goods like cars, pharmaceuticals and industrial machinery. Public Finance: Botswana’s government is seeking another P3.7 billion (US$270m) loan from local commercial banks to plug the 2026/27 budget deficit, with the bill now in Parliament. Labour Relations: BOFEPUSU has rejected plans for centralised public-service bargaining, warning it could weaken unions and disrupt existing recognition agreements. Aviation Disruption: Air Botswana says fleet and staffing pressures are biting, with 11 pilots resigning and only part of the aircraft fleet operational, forcing schedule reductions. Railway Business: Botswana Railways’ former board is blamed by President Duma Boko for blocking a private-sector partnership; meanwhile, businessman Shadrack Baaitse is moving into a new 25-year freight concession. Energy Retail: Vivo Energy Botswana opened a new Shell Tlokweng service station, expanding fuel and convenience retail offerings. SME Funding Push: SMEs are being urged to look beyond banks and consider stock markets for long-term capital, with regional exchange cooperation highlighted. Creatives & Governance: Botswana passed a Societies Act Amendment to enable faster information sharing with neighbours, while the Creators Assembly dropped Limpopo Boy after a leaked video controversy. Innovation for Youth: A new National Research and Innovation Council Bill reserves youth seats under 35 by law, aiming to turn innovation into commercial ventures.

Botswana Railways shake-up: President Duma Boko says the former BR board blocked a private-sector partnership that could have helped restore profitability, as BR continues to post losses and struggles with ageing infrastructure. Freight deal update: Businessman Shadrack Baaitse is in settlement talks over a cancelled P25m contract, while his company secures a new 25-year concession to expand BR freight capacity. Creative economy scrutiny: Botswana passed the Societies Act Amendment Bill to enable faster information sharing with neighbours, amid wider concerns about how NGOs and churches can be misused. Creative economy controversy: Government is weighing options over the Steve Harvey Global/Botswana Ignite deal after PAC heard about P355m paid for year one of a partnership worth over P1bn, with later phases stalled. Regional trade push: Nigeria partnered with Botswana to position the country as a SADC and AfCFTA production/distribution hub, with tariff schedules gazetted for qualifying goods. ICT infrastructure: Namibia and Botswana agreed to add 13 telecom sites along the Trans-Kalahari Corridor at an estimated cost of N$52m to close 4G connectivity gaps. Capital markets push: The Botswana Stock Exchange urged more private-sector education and regional collaboration to boost SME listings and access to long-term capital. Currency watch: Botswana pula was among the best-performing African currencies in July 2026, gaining against the US dollar. Tourism moment: Northern Botswana footage shows a hippo chasing tourists on a speedboat, underlining wildlife risks and the need for strict safety practices.

Botswana Governance & Accountability: Parliament dismissed claims by NCC leader Fadiel Adams that repeated laptop failures delayed his awareness of a notice tied to the Madlanga commission saga. Digital Privacy & Reputation: South African socialite Inno Morolong issued a legal warning after a private video leaked online, saying her recording and sharing were without consent. PRASA Corruption Case: A Special Tribunal ordered Lucky Montana to comply with directives in the PRASA Siyangena corruption matter after he failed to properly appear, with asset-freezing steps tied to alleged proceeds of corruption. Botswana Creative Economy: Limpopo Boy has been removed from Botswana’s inaugural Creators Assembly 2026 lineup following the spread of an alleged private video; organisers say a replacement is being considered. Capital Markets & SME Growth: The Botswana Stock Exchange urged more private-sector education and regional collaboration to boost SME listings and access to long-term capital. Pension Fund Performance: Botswana Public Officers Pension Fund (BPOPF) reported 10% asset growth to P128.337bn for the year ending March 2026 despite a tough diamond market backdrop. Regional Trade & Customs: SACU expanded its Regional AEO pilot to Namibia, Botswana and South Africa, with a second phase starting 18 August to test cross-border clearance under live conditions. ICT & Connectivity: Namibia and Botswana identified 13 extra telecom sites along the Trans-Kalahari Corridor, targeting continuous 4G coverage with an estimated N$52m investment. Sports & Funding Oversight: Botswana Football Association (BFA) is yet to account for millions of pula received under FIFA Forward grants, raising audit and compliance concerns.

SACU Trade Talks: India and the South Africa-led SACU group are set to sign terms of reference on August 12 to kick off negotiations for a preferential trade agreement, with focus areas including critical minerals, pharmaceuticals and manufacturing. Botswana Tax Overhaul: Botswana’s corporate tax regime changes from July 1, 2026, lifting the standard rate to 24.5% while keeping a 15% concessional rate for eligible manufacturing profits under existing approvals. Capital Markets Push: The Botswana Stock Exchange unveiled its “10x by 2030” plan to grow capital mobilisation and liquidity tenfold, aiming to diversify beyond diamonds. Pension Fund Resilience: BPOPF reported 10% asset growth to P128.3bn for the year ending March 2026 despite diamond-sector pressure. Football Funding Scrutiny: Botswana Football Association says FIFA Forward grants worth millions of pula have not yet been fully accounted for, raising audit and future funding concerns. Digital Payments Leap: Absa Botswana is driving contactless and smartphone-based payments through Absa Pay and MoMo on MobiTap, pushing wider financial inclusion. Regional Connectivity & ICT: Namibia and Botswana signed an ICT cooperation MoU covering digital transformation, cybersecurity, connectivity and skills, including work on Trans-Kalahari coverage gaps and data roaming pricing. Air Botswana Disruption: Air Botswana’s fleet remains grounded in Namibia due to engine and APU repairs, forcing route cancellations. BFL Governance Crisis: The Botswana Football League faces a serious governance standoff after clubs boycotted its AGM, leaving key season decisions in limbo.