AGP Executive Report

Uranium & Sovereignty: The US Development Finance Corporation approved a up-to $414.2m debt facility for Canada’s Global Atomic to develop Niger’s Dasa uranium project—raising fresh questions for the region’s decolonisation push, even as Washington isn’t buying the mine. SADC Minerals Push: Zimbabwe’s Junior Chamber of Mines chief Dosman Mangisi urged SADC governments to stop exporting raw minerals and instead build regional value chains that deepen local processing and manufacturing. Botswana Health Reality Check: As Botswana pitches “economic diplomacy” at the UNGA, local reporting flags medicine shortages and gaps in care capacity, showing the distance between reform plans and patient conditions. FMD Vaccine & Trade Pressure: Namibia’s FMD-free zone is being split into smaller areas after an outbreak, while South Africa moves to let private firms manufacture FMD vaccines using ARC IP to meet demand. Jobs & Skills: Botswana’s HRDC warns weak job creation and graduate unemployment are widening the gap between training and available work. Banking Update: Absa Botswana reported a 63% jump in non-interest income, helping offset margin pressure from higher funding costs and expected credit losses. Labour Dispute: Botswana Mine Workers Union is preparing court action over three months of unpaid salaries at Medupi Mining. BNF Economic Ownership: The Botswana National Front says its October policy conference will focus on barriers to citizen participation in higher-value sectors, including mineral beneficiation and decent jobs.

Labour & Pay Dispute: Botswana Mine Workers Union is taking Medupi Mining to court over three months of unpaid salaries, after talks and labour mediation failed, leaving workers facing another month without pay. Banking Pressure: Absa Bank Botswana says a 63% jump in non-interest income helped cushion margin pressure as funding costs and expected credit losses rose. Jobs & Skills: A Human Resource Development Council report warns weak job creation and graduate unemployment are widening the gap between qualifications and available work, urging a shift toward TVET and practical skills. Health System Reality Check: As Botswana pitches “economic diplomacy” in New York, local reporting highlights medicine shortages and gaps in hospital supplies, showing the reform push still struggles at patient level. Food Security Risk: Research warns an El Niño scenario could slash cereal yields and force higher food imports, with livestock losses potentially exceeding P1 billion. SME Finance Push: ITC and Access Bank sign a three-year plan to expand SME financing, market access and skills across 14 African countries including Botswana, starting with a Ghana pilot. Identity Services: About 40,000 identity cards are stuck due to ageing production equipment and procurement delays, with repairs expected to boost output. BNF Economic Ownership: The Botswana National Front calls for greater citizen ownership of the economy, with a policy conference set for 9–11 October in Selebi-Phikwe.

BNF & Citizen Economy: The Botswana National Front says its 9–11 October policy conference in Selebi-Phikwe will push for greater citizen ownership of the economy, with focus on barriers to participation in higher-value sectors, mineral beneficiation and decent jobs. SME Finance Boost: The International Trade Centre and Access Bank will run a three-year programme across 14 countries (including Botswana) to expand SME access to finance, markets and skills, starting with a Ghana pilot before rolling out. Food Security Warning: Botswana faces potential major shocks from an El Niño cycle (Oct 2026–Mar 2027), with research warning of steep cereal yield losses, higher food imports and livestock losses that could exceed P1 billion. Grain Farmers vs BAMB: Grain producers warn BAMB owes about P100 million, delaying payments beyond the 30-day contract period and threatening the 2026/27 planting season unless government recapitalises and supports the board. Identity Backlog: About 40,000 national identity cards are stuck due to ageing equipment and procurement delays; repaired machinery is expected to resume production this week. Copper Spotlight: Botswana is increasingly seen as a copper exploration hotspot, with new drilling and land positions in the Kalahari Copper Belt and Limpopo Mobile Belt drawing investor attention. Trade & Compliance Training: Afreximbank will hold joint trade finance and compliance events at Gaborone International Convention Centre in November, supporting AfCFTA integration.

SME Finance Push: ITC and Access Bank signed a three-year deal to boost small business access to finance, markets and skills across 14 African countries, starting with a Ghana pilot before rolling out to others including Botswana. Food Security Warning: New research flags an El Niño risk for Botswana (Oct 2026–Mar 2027), projecting major cereal yield losses and livestock losses that could top P1 billion, with higher food import needs likely. Identity Backlog: Botswana’s ID production backlog is stuck at about 40,000 cards as ageing machinery and procurement delays bite; repaired equipment is expected to resume output this week. Healthcare AI Access: Anthropic and OpenEvidence are expanding free AI clinical support to doctors in about 100 low- and middle-income countries, including Botswana-linked adaptation work, aiming to narrow gaps in medical literature and specialist access. Hotel Sector Pressure: Cresta forecasts a smaller loss before tax for the six months to June 2026, citing cost optimisation but still weak corporate travel demand. Trade Finance Meeting in Gaborone: Afreximbank will host joint trade finance and compliance forums at Gaborone International Convention Centre in November, supporting AfCFTA integration. Botswana Copper Spotlight: Botswana is being positioned as a growing copper exploration hotspot, with multiple projects targeting underexplored belts.

Tourism & Trade: Former African Travel Inc. president Sherwin Banda has launched Selara Africa, a new Africa-focused tour operator selling only through travel advisors, starting with tailor-made trips across Botswana, Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania and Egypt. SME Finance: ITC and Access Bank’s Access Africa Office signed an MoU to boost SME access to finance, markets and digital trade skills across 14 countries, with a Ghana pilot and Botswana included. Digital Economy: UNESCO and Botswana stakeholders began mapping the country’s Cultural and Creative Industries digital environment to tackle market access, skills gaps, weak sector data and financing barriers. Trade Finance for AfCFTA: Afreximbank will run a joint Trade Finance Seminar and Compliance Forum at Gaborone International Convention Centre (Nov 16–18), followed by a factoring workshop (Nov 19). Banking: Stanbic Bank Botswana reported 16% higher H1 profit after tax to P354m, while warning of currency volatility, liquidity constraints and subdued diamond-linked activity. Hotels: Cresta forecasts a smaller loss before tax for the six months to June 2026, citing cost optimisation amid weak corporate travel. Public Finance: Botswana expects a much smaller budget deficit for FY to March 2027 (P9.26bn, 3.1% of GDP) after higher-than-expected Bank of Botswana revenue transfers and spending containment. Health & Agriculture: South Africa’s FMD vaccine supply push includes asking private firms to manufacture under licence from the ARC, with Botswana Vaccine Institute named among suppliers. Mining & Markets: Botswana is being positioned as a copper exploration hotspot as new drilling targets underexplored belts like the Kalahari Copper Belt and Limpopo Mobile Belt.

Regional Diplomacy: The AU and UN endorsed Togo-led mediation in the DRC-Rwanda dispute, backing preventive diplomacy under a July–December 2026 roadmap. Security & Recruitment Scams: A Russia-linked network allegedly used fake “movie casting” ads on Facebook to recruit young men across Africa and beyond for the Ukraine war. Governance & Accountability: Botswana’s DCEC has charged former BDP ministers Eric Molale and Mpho Balopi, with Lefhoko Moagi’s case awaiting judgment. Public Finance: Botswana cut its FY2027 budget deficit forecast to P9.26bn (3.1% of GDP) after higher central bank revenue transfers, while warning structural pressures remain. Business & Markets: Stanbic Bank Botswana lifted H1 profit to P354m (+16%) but flagged pula volatility and weak diamond-linked activity. Trade & Sports Infrastructure: Botswana missed the CAF bid deadline for a joint 2028 AFCON hosting push, citing funding and low priority. Agriculture & Health: South Africa’s FMD vaccine supply plan includes asking private firms to manufacture ARC vaccines under licence, with Botswana Vaccine Institute named among suppliers. Energy & Industry: Dangote says it will list its fertiliser business in 2028, targeting 12m tonnes urea output, as it expands across Africa. Capital Markets: Continental Reinsurance’s public offer continues on the Botswana Stock Exchange, positioning the pan-African reinsurer for growth.

Banking & Finance: Stanbic Bank Botswana says first-half profit after tax rose 16% to P354m, but warns 2026 remains sensitive to pula volatility, tighter liquidity and subdued diamond-linked activity. Capital Markets: Continental Reinsurance’s $156.1m public offer is building momentum as it targets a first listing on the Botswana Stock Exchange, with the deal split between buying existing shares and fresh capital. Power & Energy: Botswana Power Corporation unveiled its five-year Atlega strategy, aiming to more than triple revenue to 25bn pula by 2031, while also reporting improved self-supply of electricity (86% in 2026-27 Q1). Inflation & Cost of Living: August inflation eased slightly to 9.3%, but transport, electricity and food pressures remain the main drivers. Mining & Investment: Oman’s MDO plans a Botswana copper-gold JV via a 76% stake, while Botswana’s diamond outlook stays under pressure as De Beers sale talks near a decision point. Business & Trade: Absa Botswana launches Google Pay via Google Wallet to push contactless digital payments. Regional Infrastructure: Dangote says it will invest $3.5bn in a 2,650km pipeline linking Namibia, Botswana and South Africa, alongside broader cross-border fuel plans. Sports Business: BNOC and Nike unveil a long-term Team Botswana deal through 2036, with performance bonuses for major events.

Sports & Incentives: Botswana athletes returning from Budapest are set to cash in under revised performance incentives, with the BNOC–Nike deal raising the stakes for medals at major events. Sports & Tourism: Sowa is gearing up for the inaugural Makgadikgadi Softball Grand Slam (Sept 29–Oct 3), with 16 teams and Independence anniversary programming aimed at boosting the region. Banking & Payments: Absa Botswana is rolling out Google Pay via Google Wallet and Visa, pushing contactless phone payments for customers. Inflation & Cost of Living: Inflation eased slightly to 9.3% in August, but transport, electricity and food pressures remain heavy for households. Power Sector: Botswana Power Corporation unveiled its five-year “Atlega” strategy to nearly triple revenue to 25bn pula by 2031. Corporate & Courts: A local transport firm, DC Tours, heads to the High Court to block a German manufacturer’s contract termination, arguing the legal basis was switched. Energy Infrastructure: Dangote says it will build a 2,650km pipeline linking Namibia, Botswana and South Africa, as part of a wider cross-border network to cut fuel logistics costs. Business Outlook: FNBB expects Botswana inflation to average 8.5% in 2026 with growth subdued around 1.9%. Public Finance & Growth Model: Stanbic Bank convened leaders to debate how Botswana can build export-ready companies as procurement-led growth reaches its limit. Water & Local Services: Gaborone’s service centre debt remains high at P400.55m, while smart prepaid meters expand water monitoring.

Banking & Finance: Commercial banks’ profits are back on track, with H1 earnings reaching P1.9bn, helped by stronger non-interest income and lower bad-debt provisions. Capricorn Group: Simonis Storm forecasts Capricorn FY27 headline earnings to fall 6.8% to N$1.626bn (HEPS down to 320.4c), while noting capital remains well above the 12.5% requirement. Insurance Growth: Momentum says new business in Namibia rose, driven by retail sales and corporate protection, with group PVNBP up 18% to N$93.8bn. City Infrastructure & Water: Gaborone’s water crisis is tied to aging infrastructure, with the city’s service-centre debt at P400.55m and smart prepaid meters rolling out. Health: Gantsi diarrhoea cases spiked to 124 in a week before easing to 57, with rotavirus vaccine orders and intensified community education. Trade & Energy Links: Transnet’s rail network faces a R26bn Treasury request to refurbish lines critical for trade, including a corridor connecting Botswana mines to South African ports. Regional Energy Ambition: Aliko Dangote plans a $3.5bn pipeline across Namibia, Botswana and South Africa to cut fuel bottlenecks. Business Legal Pressure: A supplier seeks to wind up Sefalana Cash & Carry over a disputed ~R10m claim, though the group says operations are unaffected. Mining/Exploration: Cobre Limited reports early high-grade copper mineralisation from a new deep hole at Sierra Atacama.

Botswana Business & Economy: A supplier has filed to wind up Sefalana Cash & Carry in Botswana High Court over a disputed claim of about P10m, a move the group says is pressure rather than insolvency; Sefalana says trading is normal and the petition should not materially affect operations. Banking & Finance: Capricorn Group reported profit after tax down 6.4% to N$1.87bn for the year to June 2026, with non-interest income rising 8.3% to N$2.62bn (47.7% of operating income) as net interest income slipped 1.9%. Corporate & Community: Bank Windhoek invested over N$21m in Namibia community and social value initiatives, including N$9.65m in CSI projects and support via the Capricorn Foundation. Infrastructure & Accountability: Mukwe residents demanded action on stalled road works, citing the Divundu–Muhembo Border Post Road and other neglected routes affecting trade and access to services. Trade & Regional Context: Botswana’s exporters and manufacturers association is among delegates expected at the BRICS+ Fashion Summit in Moscow, signalling continued regional business networking.

Sefalana Court Challenge: A supplier has filed a winding-up petition against Botswana wholesaler Sefalana Cash & Carry over a disputed claim of about P10m (roughly US$615,000), with the group saying trading is normal and the case is unlikely to affect operations. Corporate Earnings Watch: The filing comes as Sefalana reported its first profit decline in nine years, with profit before tax down 40% and a 60% dividend cut. Local Infrastructure Pressure: In Mukwe, residents have petitioned the Ministry of Works and Transport and the Roads Authority over stalled and abandoned road projects, including the Divundu–Muhembo Border Post Road and the Andara–Shamaturu Road, demanding budgets to restart works. Regional Energy Deals: Oman’s OQ says Sultan Haitham’s visits to Botswana and Angola are driving new energy partnerships, including evaluations across oil & gas, LNG, fertilisers and a proposed 500MW renewable project. Mining & Markets: Galileo Resources says conditions for selling its Botswana copper licences are set to complete around Sept 30, while MMG says it will keep supplying Europe amid an EU antitrust challenge to its nickel deal. Health Systems Partnership: Botswana and the US marked a decade of the Global Health Supply Chain Program, highlighting improved access to medicines and progress toward ending AIDS as a public health threat.

Court Pressure on Retail: A supplier has asked Botswana’s High Court to wind up Sefalana Cash & Carry over a disputed claim of about 10 million rand (~$615,000), with Sefalana saying trading is normal and the group expects no material impact. Corporate Earnings Watch: The filing comes as Sefalana reported a 40% fall in profit before tax in August, with gross margin slipping to 5.8% from 7.1% and a 60% dividend cut. Diplomacy & Energy Deals: Oman’s Sultan Haitham’s Botswana and Angola visits are driving new agreements across energy, mining, aviation, investment, pharmaceuticals and logistics, including cooperation on renewables and a 500MW solar plan linked to Maun. Roadworks Under Fire: Mukwe residents demand action on stalled and abandoned multi-million-dollar road projects, citing halted works on the Divundu–Muhembo Border Post Road and poor access routes affecting emergency care. Health Supply Partnership: Botswana and the US marked a decade of the Global Health Supply Chain Program, highlighting improved access to medicines and progress toward ending AIDS as a public health threat. Finance Sector Snapshot: Capricorn Group reported profit after tax down 6.4% to N$1.87bn for FY ended 30 June 2026, citing higher funding costs and credit impairments.

Capricorn Group Results: Capricorn Group says profit after tax fell 6.4% to N$1.87bn for the year to 30 June 2026, hit by higher funding costs, tougher Botswana conditions and rising credit impairments, though deposits rose 6.3% and capital adequacy improved to 19.4%. Sanlam Exits AfroCentric: Sanlam has cut its 60% stake in AfroCentric down to zero, saying it won’t sell but is rightsizing after losing the Bonitas contract, while keeping faith in management and cost control. Botswana Health Supply Milestone: Botswana and the US marked 10 years of the Global Health Supply Chain Program, highlighting improved access to medicines and progress toward ending AIDS as a public health threat. Roads Under Pressure (Mukwe): Residents of Mukwe demand action on stalled and abandoned road projects, citing the Divundu–Muhembo Border Post Road and delays affecting access to Andara District Hospital. Copper Licences Timing: Galileo expects sale of its Botswana copper licences to be finalised by Sept 30. Regional Markets Push: SADC is advancing exchange connectivity to support cross-border trading, aiming to deepen Southern Africa’s capital markets. AI at the UN: The Trump administration will host a high-level AI event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, with policy and regulatory conditions on the agenda.

Road Accountability: Mukwe residents have petitioned Botswana’s Ministry of Works and Transport and the Roads Authority over stalled projects, especially the Divundu–Muhembo Border Post Road where 5km of bitumen is done but 13km through Mahango National Park was halted, alongside complaints about the Andara–Shamaturu Road affecting emergency access to Andara District Hospital. Banking Earnings: Capricorn Group says profit after tax fell 6.4% to N$1.87bn for FY ended 30 June 2026, hit by higher funding costs and rising credit impairment charges, though deposits and capital ratios improved. Copper Licences Deal: Galileo Resources expects its sale of Botswana copper licences to be finalised by Sept 30 after all conditions precedent were met. Health Financing Push: The UN Economic Commission for Africa, with Yemi Osinbajo, is driving a shift toward sustainable domestic health financing as aid declines and debt tightens fiscal space. Regional Markets: SADC is moving to connect stock exchanges via the SADC Exchange Gateway to enable cross-border trading and broaden investor access. Prison Contraband: Botswana’s Madlanga Commission hears that 102,720 cellphones were seized in prisons between 2023 and 2026, with officials linked to smuggling networks. Tourism & Culture: House of Botswana hosted “Diamonds & The Delta” in New York, spotlighting Botswana’s music, culture and global rise.

Sovereign Credit Watch: S&P Global kept Botswana’s investment-grade rating (BBB- / A-3) but maintained a negative outlook, warning weak diamond demand could keep pressuring growth, exports and government receipts. Energy & Local Supply: Botswana Power Corporation says local production now meets 86% of national electricity needs in 1Q 2026/27, helped by a rooftop solar push to 75 MW (about 30 MW already online). Mining & Exploration: Serval Resources updated work on two Kalahari Copper Belt prospects, with AMT and drone surveys completed at Somelo and ongoing work at Sweet Thorn Pan, data processing underway and follow-up targets expected end-October. Trade & Diplomacy: Oman and Botswana signed multiple agreements during a state visit, including visa-free arrangements for diplomatic/special passport holders, air services, investment promotion, medicines security and energy cooperation. Business Development: CEDA urged Botswana’s emerging hemp sector to build citizen-owned, bankable enterprises with clear regulation and accessible markets—not just new production. Tourism Add-On: Cresta Mowana opened Ku Muzi Boma in Chobe, aiming to extend visitor stays with Botswana cuisine plus live music, dance and storytelling.

Retail & Profit Outlook: Choppies warns Namibia government-subsidised commodities and softer consumer conditions across Botswana and Zambia will hit FY2026 results, with profit after tax from continuing operations seen down 46%–56% to BWP66m–BWP82m. Trade & Logistics: Grindrod’s Walvis Bay terminal in Namibia posted a 162% jump in drybulk volumes to 43,515 tonnes in the first half of 2026, while the group flagged moderate SADC growth supported by mining, energy and agriculture. Sovereign Credit Watch: S&P kept Botswana’s investment-grade rating (BBB-/A-3) but maintained a negative outlook, citing weak diamond demand as the key risk to growth, exports and fiscal receipts. Energy Security: Botswana Power Corporation says local production now meets 86% of electricity needs in Q1 2026/27, helped by rooftop solar expansion to 75 MW (about 30 MW already installed). Oman-Botswana Deal Push: Oman and Botswana signed multiple agreements during Sultan Haitham’s state visit, including visa waivers for diplomatic/special passports, air services, investment promotion, and a medicines security partnership. Mining Exploration: Serval Resources updated work on two Kalahari Copper Belt prospects in Botswana, with AMT and drone surveys progressing and data interpretation due in October. Tourism Experience: Cresta Mowana opened Ku Muzi Boma in Chobe, adding cultural dining and entertainment to encourage longer stays beyond wildlife drives.